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Ukraine and bitcoin - the economy has imploded, and the hrivna is the worst performing currency on the planet this year. why is bitcoin failing to attract any interest?
i live in Ukraine. the hrivna and the economy are the worst performing on the planet this year so far. there are machines where you can buy bitcoins everywhere, yet no one is buying them. why is that? well here's the performance of the hrivna against the dollar this year. almost 40% decline. http://i.imgur.com/R7RKK9E.png and here's the performance of bitcoin against the dollar this year. also down almost 40%. http://i.imgur.com/N4XCUXy.png add to this the fact that the machines where you can buy bitcoin charge 8%, and that there is nowhere to spend them, and you start to see the problem. most Ukrainians i know that have even heard of bitcoin say 'why should i change my hrivna into bitcoin, at a cost of 8%, when they're equally as bad?'. everyone is getting dollars or euros, because they're stable, and you can use them. add on to this the lack of trust Mtgox has caused, and the fact that almost half the bitcoins in existence are owned by only 1000 people, and you have something that looks like a very unattractive and risky bet. people over 30 can remember the total economic collapse in the 90's, and recent various schemes like MMM that tried to restart itself in 2011, and so are very wary of alternative currencies that promise the earth, but never seem to deliver. if bitcoin isn't attractive to people living through an economic collapse, then it doesn't look good for mass adoption in countries with stable economies. tldr: Ukrainians aren't interested in bitcoin, even though their currency and economy are the worst performing in the world this year.
The truth about MtGox will come out and charges will be laid.
Some big banks will reverse their anti-bitcoin stance and will accept accounts denominated in Bitcoin, though only for high value customers like major businesses and such.
Kinda nailed it? Banks certainly are on the doorstep of doing stuff like this, Ukraine etc. and "blockchain" technology certainly is big right now. I may have been a little early though.
Bitpay, Coinbase, Circle or one of the other big, yet reputable Bitcoin processors will get bought out/acquired, signalling that big players are finally moving into Bitcoin adoption in a very serious way.
No dice, seems that these little piggy banks are not ripe enough for acquisition just yet....
Bitlicense, for all it's negative press and dislkie by Bitcoin users, will usher in a surge of new investment in the Bitcoin space. A number of other states and a few other countries will also pass, or be crafting legislation so that Bitcoin commerce has a solid legal framework for companies to operate around. Some will be absurd, but some will not be as bad (none will be glowingly positive though).
Sorry guys, dropped the ball on this one. My prediction is bad, and I should feel bad. Though the sliver lining is that countries and states are definitely building legal frameworks to accommodate Bitcoin, and other cryptos so it wasn't a totally bad prediction, just the bitlicense bit.
The ETF will sit on the tarmac for almost the whole year before it suddenly and unexpectedly gets the green light late in 2015.
sigh... On the upside GBTC is going swimmingly and at least the Winklevii have their Gemini exchange up and going. God knows when their etf is ever going to fly though.
Australia will do nothing about the ATO's ruling on Bitcoin and will remain a backwater for Bitcoin businesses, even though Bitcoin use by Australians will increase....
...The ATO will start pursuing people that conduct business in Bitcoin without declaring tax as tax evaders and will waste money and resources pursuing individuals/businesses that don't disclose Bitcoin commerce or retain the double GST for Bitcoin related sales. Ironically the cause of this this will be the result of their own idiotic rulings in the previous year. The ATO will be left red faced, and some Australian politicians will begin to craft legislation to recategorise Bitcoin as a currency, as it should have been originally.
Ok that didn't quite happen AFAIK there's been no crackdown, but I do remember that senate hearings or meetings were in place to legislate the legality of Bitcoin as a currency. I guess time will tell.
The Usability Front:
Trezor will be accessible and ubiquitous among nearly every major Bitcoin wallet, both desktop, web, and mobile. And a number of other new hardware wallets will have hit the market, though Trezor will still be the stand out must have security item in 2015. Satoshi Labs will also release a more compact and more feature rich hardware wallet towards the end of the year.
Still not there, but the number of other hardware wallets has definitely increased substantially, with even more on the horizon so here's hoping that next year we'll see ubiquitous and universal compatibility among more hardware wallets.
The Core software Front:
Sidechains proof of concept will be in the wild, and the attention will be massive, though there will be lots of arguing among bitcoiners over decentralisation, fork related issues, stability, security, etc. This year will be very much an embryonic year for sidechains where many problems are thrashed out and refinements will occur, in anticipation for a final stable release, though no direct action will be taken to fork so that sidechains will be possible, there will be a massive concentration of effort on sidechain development in 2015.
If only, sidechains was not the star this year, and we all know why too...
Gavin, and the other core developers will announce a desire for a hard fork, which will set a schedule for raising the transaction and max block size limit, as well as other fork related improvements. Others will try to hijack the fork announcement to also get their own pet hard fork changes in and it will take months for the arguing to die down before people become convinced that controversial changes simply aren't going to get into the fork if it happens. Miners will already be positioning for a fork by the time the discussion dies down and most will already be indicating their acceptance, which will be implemented in 2016.
FYI, there was absolutely ZERO noise about the block increase when I made this prediction, so I'm going to say that I nailed the specifics, but I obviously was NOT prepared for monumental clusterfuck shitfest that Blockstream, Core and their little cliquey circle was going to unleash onto the general community. Nor did I anticipate how the miners would reel in horror at what should have been fairly straightforward upgrade that even now, seems quite rational and acceptable. It's obvious now that there was a huge amount of hidden resentment and resistance to any block increase by many devs and other members in the community, so in retrospect the years of stalling makes far more sense now. At the very least I'm just glad their true colors are out in the open for everyone to see, rather than hidden behind excuses, lies, and half truths.
Other likely developments:
Lighthouse and Open Bazaar will make big news as they start to draw away ebay and kickstarter users, but will also make news for all the wrong reasons as the media demonises the platforms as being simply an evolution of the Silk Road.
Another missed opportunity. At least OB is still going strong and hasn't fizzled like some other projects. Keep up the great work Open Bazaar devs!
Western Union and the big CC companies will still pretend that Bitcoin isn't happening, but there will be obvious signs of them repositioning to push back against Bitcoin users.
Nailed it. :) For people that don't agree, all I have to say is this, "blockchain technology" ;).
2015 is finally going to see bail-ins for at least 2 large countries and 3 or more will have entered major recessions this year. One or two countries will hit hyperinflation and their currencies won't be traded by years end. Even in light of this, most people will still not buy Bitcoins and it will still be seen as a geek thing, so many less savy people will still be avoiding Bitcoins for all the wrong reasons.
I guess I far too optimistic :), looks like these dinosaurs still have some fight in them left. Though Europe and the Greek crisis did almost happen, so I only just narrowly missed calling a huge financial catastrophe this year. Doesn't mean it isn't going to happen, just not this year I guess.
And finally, price:
I reckon if most of the thing's I mentioned above come to pass, I wouldn't be surprised at the price rising to $3850 USD at the most extreme, and It will happen in August. But will quickly fall back to $2300 USD by the end of the year.
Goddamnit. Oh well, I guess it's understandable now that the blocksize issue has been completely blown out of proportion and turned the entire ecosystem on it's head.
All in all I think I did pretty damn well considering. I reckon if the move to increase the blocksize had gone according to BIP101, we would have seen a far more positive end of year though. The controversy has almost certainly taken the wind out of the innovation sails so to speak as it's clear in my predictions that I expected things to have moved along far more than it has.
We could use a few more Spartans. Here's what you can do to help Bitcoin today!
BTC is being tossed around like a sex slave by traders lately. This is a guide to quickly investing in a small long position in BTC on Mt. Gox. This essentially raises the ante for the players. If you believe in BTC bu don't have any, this is how to put your money where your mouth is, and now is as good a time as any. On e person with deep pockets is nowhere near as powerful as a multitude of little people in this scenario, and the market is on an enforced pause. If you have Bitcoin but don't want to sell them(or even open your wallet), this method will also work for you. If you have Bitcoin and do want to sell them, it doesn't surprise me that you are reading a wall of text that.....well, what can i say. First the disclaimers. First, there are some who believe that BTC dropping in value could be the best thing for it. I see why that is a possibility, but my counter is that i don't care about the price, i care about stability. Increased stability will lead to more adoption on all fronts (anyone want to do a merchant guide?) and increased likelihood of success. I am not encouraging day trading, i am explaining how to take a long position (a long term bet that BTC will go up vs. $USD). We are just trying to build a decentralized 'floor' to ease the sharp drops. Second, i am not a financial or legal expert. I have read the so called 'guidance' and am very sure that this method is well within the law. I am just describing what has worked best for me so that you can hopefully avoid some of the many missteps i have made along my bitcoin journey. YMMV. Third, yes i know that Mt Gox is having trouble lately, and not the best place to put your money. However, like it or not, Mt Gox is currently the public face of BTC value and where the battle for public opinion is being fought. That's where we nee d the Spartans the most. Last, please post how long this process took you in the comments so that we can get a solid estimate on how fast Spartans can be added to the line in the future. You will need: Pen & paper, cell phone, computer(not smartphone), two hours of time and a little money that you are willing to lose. DO NOT make a bigger bet than you can afford to lose. This is NOT A SURE THING, but every extra Spartan helps, especially right now. Step 1. Go to Mt. Gox and create an account. It's been a while since i made mine, so i don't know how long this takes these days. Don't bother with verification or anything you don't have to. The object is to acquire a Mt. Gox account number. It will be in the form of M********X, where *=numeral. Step 2. Move some money in to the account. If you live outside the control of the US gov't, just do what any normal person would do and move the money into an exchange with a debit or credit card. Enjoy your freedom. Otherwise...... This is the pain in the ass part where you will start to understand what 'freedom' really means. Some will disagree with me, but IMO right now BitInstant->Moneygram->Zipzap->Mtgox is the quickest way. It is the difference between 2 hours (24/7) and two business days. If you want to use a different method, more power to you. Go to bitinstant.com, select your country, and select 'Cash Deposit' on the left. The drop down menu will list Moneygram vendors (CVS, Jewel/Osco, 7/11,Stater Bros, WalMart, etc). Select a vendor that is convenient. The right side should be defaulted to 'Mt Gox',which is what we want. Call the Moneygram vendor to A) ensure that they are open B) ensure that they have a dedicated RED PHONE at their Moneygram station. If they have a kiosk instead of a phone, you're gonna have a bad time, so select another vendor and try again. Grocery stores seem to be the best. While you are on the phone you can continue with the dat entry. Enter your information. They will ask for your Mt Gox account #, your legal name, a contact e-mail, and your date of birth. Don't lie, it's important to follow the law to the letter in a public environment. If you are looking for anonymity, this is not for you. Enter the amount you wish to move. Low numbers are easy, big numbers are problematic. The butter zone seems to be $500. Anything higher and you are likely to get rejected further down the line, and have to start the process all over. The transaction limit seems to be 2/day. The truth is that there has been a lot of 'variance' in people's experience with this transfer, and there i no rhyme or reason to it. I am trying to show you what has worked for me. At $500 your transaction fees will end up at 4.75%, at other amounts it will vary because of the $3.95 fixed fee per transaction. If you have a better deal than 4.75% that can be done in less than 2 days, i would love to hear about it. Play the little game to prove you are human by clicking and dragging the objects around. Vote for your favorites in the comments; i just got 'Put the animals on the ground' which i hereby down vote. There are much better ones. Once you are certain that you Moneygram vendor will meet your needs (RED PHONE!), click the send funds button to move onto the next screen, which redisplays the info and gives you some transaction codes. Take a screenshot or copy the info(or not) and click 'Go' to move to the next screen. Now we are at ZipZap. Enter your phone number and your area code and hit search. You will see a google maps style interface displaying Moneygram vendors. If you select any vendor other than the one you selected back at Bitinstant, you're gonna have a bad time. If your vendor is not available on the list, take note of the ones that are and go back to Step 1. Click 'Pay Here' next to your vendor and then click 'Create Payment Slip'. The two most important numbers are the AMOUNT ($503.95 in my example) and the ACCOUNT NUMBER OF BILL TO PAY, the 9 digit number. If your 9 digit number contains any letters, stop and go back to Step 1. You will not be charged any money if you stop now, but if you try to use letter in the account number you're gonna have a bad time. The 4 digit RECEIVE CODE is also important, but it is a constant 9611. Go to the Moneygram vendor. Tell the cashier you are there to pay for a money order, and ask if they are going to need a manager to complete the transaction, i.e. make sure they have their shit together BEFORE you pick up the red phone, otherwise your gonna have a bad time. If the transaction times out because they aren't ready to take your money, congratulations, you get to go back to Step 1 (tens timeouts seem to be getting longer, around 10 mins, but again, YMMV. My budget is 5 mins, just to be sure. the fine print is something ridiculous like 120 seconds or something). Pick up the red phone and get ready to take the red pill. Follow the prompts with the keypad to enter all your information. This will include your phone number, the amount, the receive code (9611) and the 9 digit acct #. Most likely that will not be good enough (you may get lucky, but definitely not your first time) and so you will be connected to a live Moneygram operator. They will repeat all the info you just entered back to you verbatim and ask you to confirm it. They will also ask for your address. They are looking to check against the address your driver's license (your tax dollars hard at work, the irony is delicious) before the send the money on to Ukraine, who will send it to Japan. They will also ask if you iive in a house or an apartment, IDK why but they do. Once they are satisfied, they will tell you to pay the cashier. Pay the cashier. Cash, debit or a combination of the two. Credit cards may work, too, but idk for sure. Go back to the Mt Gox website. Log in and click on Settings. The second menu item will allow you to be notified every time a trade is completed, which is what you want. Wait for the money. IME it has been 10 to 30 minutes. If you missed ANY detail in the previous steps (i.e. omitted a middle initial in you name as it appears on your debit card, incorrect address spelling, etc...) you're gonna have a really bad time. You will get your money eventually, but you are going to end up in the customer service queue, and they are a wee bit busy at the moment due to this complicated process. You will be waiting a while, and your money will be trapped in transit. Step 4. Set the position. I don't want to get into the details of trading or Mt Gox, i just want to keep it simple. Feel free to expand the discussion below. Here is the gist: you are going to buy low and sell high. Novel concept, i know. Set your floor. This is the crux move. The floor is the price below which BTC will not drop, no matter what, its minimal market value. We want that to increase so that the volatility that just shut down Mt Gox goes away, and sane people start to consider entering the market. Your floor price is your floor price, and every individual person is different, but we can floor $100 if 1,000 follow these steps. Last time the floor was $5. It could get really ugly. That is what we are trying to prevent. So, using my $500 example, i immediately spilt the position, meaning i buy $250 in bitcoin. I know it sounds crazy, but the price doesn't matter. You can duke that out in the comments, but it is true. Now i have $250 in bit coin and $250 in cash, and i'm going withdraw the bitcoin out of mt gox to somewhere else (newbs seem to like blockchain.info). Now i have a minimal (but not zero) investment in bitcoin that is not on mt box. Using my example again, i am going to bid(try to buy) 2 bitcoins at $100. If i am successful, i will still have $50 left, and therefore some cash in reserve. Now it doesn't really matter whether i buy a bitcoin or not at this point, because i have succeeded in establishing the THREAT of buying at $100, which the speculators can see. If enough people do this (and there are already a ton, maybe even enough, but it is too close to call, hence the volatility and the market shutdown) they won't even try to push that low, and we have established a floor. Pick your own floor number. Seriously, you have to pick the number that you really believe in for this to work, that way everybody's floor number is a bit different from everyone else. Now instead of a hard floor at $100 (speculators push price to $101 and then allow growth again) we have a soft floor that is more difficult to see and react to. It is the advantage of being decentralized, which we must continue to use. The last piece of the puzzle is to ask to sell 10 bitcoins. You have none to sell, but mt gox will let you place to order all the same. Don't be greedy here! $60 is plenty of reward for your effort. If you try to take $100 out each time right now, you're gonna have a bad time. The last important point is that every time you get an email that says a trade has been completed on Mt Gox, go back and reset the EXACT SAME trade, even if you lack the funds. So, in my example, i have a bid of 2 coins at $100 and an ask of 10 coins at $140, and $250 cash and 0 BTC in my account, along with some BTC in reserve. Let's run through all the possible scenarios. PRICE goes DOWN and STAYS DOWN. I end up buying 2 BTC. PRICE goes DOWN and then UP. I buy two coins at 100, then sell them at 140. I pocket the $80. If the price goes down again, we can do it again. PRICE goes UP and STAYS UP. We win. There are more fights ahead but they are of a different nature. Cross that bridge when we get there. PRICE goes UP and then DOWN. I end up buying 2 BTC. PRICE dosn't move. This is what we want most. As long as they keep manipulating the price, you keep pocketing $80. This is how the tool that is BTC works. You can't stop them from manipulating price, but they can't stop you from extracting money from them when they do. The less stable the market, the more WARNINGS!!!! Here are the best ways to fuck this up! 1. Getting greedy. If you don't sell at 140 and try to hold on, you risk not having the funds to maintain your floor. don't be greedy. 2. Forgetting to reset the trades. Once a trade is made, you have to reset it to have it available again. 3. ????? Am i missing something? Let us know??? OK, my head hurts form typing, but that't the gist of it. I am sure i missed some details, particularly about Mt. Gox, cuz it's really not my thing, and i appreciate any clarifications y'all may have. Also, i'm not going back and proofreading this, so i am sure the grammar police will visit, and i thank them in advance. If 1,000 do this in the next 8 hours we can start to be taken seriously as a currency, and we will surpass silver in terms of fixed value. Once BTC are worth more than silver, it's only one more step to being worth more than gold.
Founder Jesse Powell started the exchange after helping with MTGOX's 2011 crisis/hack. It was during this experience that Jesse realized the importance of security for a bitcoin exchange. Determined to do better, Jesse started what would become Kraken later that year. As a testiment to the focus on security, Kraken has never been hacked and remains of the of top Bitcoin exchanges in the world ... MtGox.com. MtGox. Crypto Currencies Buy Bank wire . Euro (EUR) - SEPA wire transfer in Euros sent from from anywhere in the European Union / E.U. Danish krone (DKK) - Domestic bank wire in kroners from any bank in Denmark; U.S. dollar (USD) - International bank wire transfers in U.S. dollars to Bitcoin Nordic's Danish bank account. Cash or check by mail MtGox ran away with $500m+ in Bitcoins and is bankrupt. No one really trusts any of the exchanges — even some smaller exchanges went under the past 3 months. The only “safe” place to buy Bitcoin in the USA is via Coinbase and they are not an exchange. Buy Bitcoin Anonymously in Russia. Don’t buy from Dmitry in the alley near Nikol ... Coinbase is one of the most popular and trusted bitcoin sites today. This allows users to buy BTC with dollars, euros and British pound. It also allows you to pay through your bank account, credit card, and PayPal. One of the best things with Coinbase is its intuitive design. The interface is simple and easy to use. In addition, card purchases are straightforward and its fees are very ...
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